This weekend there are two great championship games on to decide who will play for the Lombardi Trophy.The Broncos will host The Patriots and The Seahawks will host the 49ers.
AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs Broncos Sunday 3:30 PM
Overview: This will be the fifteenth meeting between Brady and Manning (Brady leads 10-4, 2-1 in the playoffs). the Broncos have home field advantage after the win against the Chargers While The patriots come into the game after a win against the Colts. New England defeated Denver 34-31 in overtime in Week 12.
Running Game Advantage: Patriots
Last week, the Patriots rushed for 234 yards against the Colts defense. Legarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns. The Patriots not only have Blount, the power back, but they also have two speed backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen who both have performed well in the playoffs in years past. The Broncos counter with Knowshon Moreno, a talented back with big play ability. he rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown last week in a win against San Diego. Denver has been running the ball often and effectively in the past few weeks. It will be necessary for them to be effective in the cold weather where it will be harder to pass the ball.
Passing Game Advantage: Broncos
Peyton Manning has broken many records along the way to this game with his talented receiving core. He threw 55 touchdowns this year to a myriad of talented receivers such as Demaryious Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas. They kill teams by running well designed plays where every receiver is a viable option. While Brady is a future hall of famer, He has not looked as sharp of late. He has not thrown over 200 yards in the past three weeks against average secondaries. Also, he has not had a consistent target all year that has been healthy and productive besides Julian Edelman. Though saying this, TOm Brady is still Tom Brady and can hurt any defense. Look for the Patriots to establish the run early and throw out of play action later.
Defensive Advantage: Patriots
The Patriots have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but still are very strong. Their two corner backs, Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard are two very good, lock down corners. They will have two hold down the Broncos outside threats to win. The secondary picked off Andrew Luck four times in last weeks win. Luck had only previously thrown nine picks all season. Manning arguably had his worst game of the season (19-36 150 yards 2 TDs 1 INT), so it will be interesting to see how he performs at home this time. The Broncos team has a great rush defense, but their pass defense has been susceptible to giving up a lot of yards against good teams. Brady threw for 344 yards against them in the regular season and is poised to do it again.
Prediction: Patriots 38-35
New England has played in a ton of close games this year and has been tested more. New England looked very sharp both last week and when they played Denver at home in Week 12. If Lagerrette Blount can hold onto the ball and control the clock, this will open the door for Brady to find mismatches in the secondary. Manning will definitely be formidable at home with healthy weapons, but in the end, I don't think his defense is as good as Brady's which is why I believe it will come down to a final drive where Manning is picked off and falls to 10-12 in the playoffs and 4-11 against Brady.
NFC Championship Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks Sunday 6:30 PM
Running Game Advantage: Even
This game features two very tough running backs; Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore. Lynch rushed for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against the Saints. He is one of the toughest backs to bring down at first contact, so he gets lots of extra yards just by keeping his legs moving. He averaged 85 yards per game vs San Francisco's tough rush defense this year. Gore has rushed for 153 yards this postseason against Green bay and Carolina. Both teams have mobile quarterbacks as well. While Russel Wilson is classified more as a pocket passer, he can run effectively too. Colin Kaepernick has been notoriously known for tearing up defenses with his legs when he gets out of the pocket. His rush attempts have been limited this year to prolong his career, but in a game of this magnitude he should be able to cut loose and run.
Passing Game Advantage: Seahawks
Russell Wilson is not the flashiest passer around, but he is very effective. He completed 63% of his passes during the regular season and threw 26 touchdowns. The Seahawks rely heavily on their run game and work around that, which is why Wilson averages the lowest amount of attempts per game (25.8). Even last week against New Orleans he threw for 108 on nine completions (18 attempts 50% completion). this stats might not look great on paper, but he managed the game well and made a huge play to Doug Baldwin which put his team in position to score and win. Kaepernick can be a very streaky passer as well. He can throw the ball extremely well at times to his various big -time targets, but other times he can be very inaccurate. He has only completed 53% of his passes this postseason. He also had 14 turnovers in the regular season which won't be good against Seattle's ball hawking secondary. In his two meetings against Seattle he has completed a mere 49% of his passes and thrown four interceptions to only one touchdown. The crowd will be into it as well, so this game could be a tough game for Kaeperncik passing-wise.
Defensive Advantage: Even
While the Seahawks are well known for having the best secondary in the league, the 49ers defense has one of the top front sevens in the league. The 49ers allowed only 95.9 rushing yards per game while Seattle allowed only 172 passing yards per game. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are poised to contain Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis and control the "big play". Linebackers like Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman along with Justin and Aldon Smith look to bottle up Marshawn Lynch and force Wilson to pass. I don't think you will find two evenly matched defenses anywhere else.
Prediction: Seahawks 23-17
The crowd will play a huge role in this game. If Seattle is able to contain Kaepernick and Gore, they will force the 49ers to throw the ball which is where San Francisco is prone to mistakes. In the end, I believe Seattle has more big plays in them and they will pull off the win.
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